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Conclusion: When will the situation in Iran settle? What investors should do now
At this moment, the scenarios largely depend on "the scale of military conflict" and "the progress of diplomatic negotiations".
The market tends to immediately incorporate the "worst-case scenario" and then make corrections.
The three main potential developments are as follows.
- Limited retaliation leads to de-escalation → Oil prices rise temporarily before settling down
- Expansion of conflict involving proxy forces → Stagnation of high oil prices; unstable stock market
- Emergence of risks in the Strait of Hormuz → Possibility of a global stock market crash
In other words, it is more important to determine "which scenario the situation is transitioning to" than "when it will settle".
Investors need to respond calmly while monitoring oil, gold, and currency movements, rather than just the news itself.
The Current Situation in Iran (Background as of 2026)
In recent years, Iran has been dealing with nuclear issues, conflicts with Israel, and sanctions from the United States.
In particular, the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic point through which about 20% of the world's oil transportation passes; tensions in this area cause oil futures to react immediately.
Additionally, there are issues surrounding armed groups (e.g., Hezbollah) that are said to be supported by Iran, leading to a "proxy war" scenario in addition to direct clashes.
Therefore, the market is pricing in a state of intermittent tension rather than an "immediate resolution".
The Correlation Between the Situation in Iran and Stock Prices
① Correlation with Oil Prices
When news related to Iran comes out, WTI oil tends to rise immediately.
The impact of rising oil prices extends as follows:
- Rise in energy stocks
- Decline in airline and logistics stocks
- Inflation concerns → Rise in interest rates → Adjustment of tech stocks
In summary, the situation in Iran represents an indirect impact through oil.
② Effects on Japanese Stocks
As Japan is an energy-importing country, high oil prices tend to be a negative factor.
It particularly affects the power, transportation, and manufacturing sectors.
On the other hand, defense-related and resource-related stocks tend to attract capital.
③ Inverse Correlation with Gold and US Treasuries
During times of rising geopolitical risks, "safe assets" are bought.
Rising gold prices become an indicator of market anxiety.
Examining "Duration until Stabilization" from Past Instances
- Gulf War → Military conclusion in about 7 months
- Negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement → Several years
- Limited conflicts in the Middle East → Settling down within weeks to months
In cases of "limited retaliatory exchanges" like the current situation, there is a high possibility that the market will acclimate within weeks to months.
However, if nuclear issues reignite, it could lead to a long-term situation.
Investor's Strategy Checklist
- □ Monitor oil price trends
- □ Check for sudden spikes in gold prices
- □ Observe the overheating of defense-related stocks
- □ In the case of Japanese stocks, consider the ratio of domestic demand stocks
- □ Evaluate if temporary drops are a good opportunity for diversified investment
Panic selling is the most avoidable action.
The Importance of Information Sharing and Document Dissemination
In times of geopolitical risk, sharing breaking news and unique analytical materials becomes important.
For example,
- A graph correlating oil prices compiled independently
- An Excel comparison of stocks
- A PDF of risk analysis
- Materials you wish to disseminate anonymously
In such cases, UploadF (uploadf.com) is convenient.
Compatible with both PC and smartphones, drag and drop enabled, completely free to use.
Settings for storage duration and individual deletions are also possible, making it suitable for temporary sharing with investment partners or anonymous distribution.
During times of high geopolitical risk, accurate information sharing leads to calm decision-making.
Summary: How will the situation in Iran and stock prices develop?
・Short-term: Fluctuations based on news headlines
・Medium-term: Indirect impacts through oil prices
・Long-term: The market will gradually adjust
The most important thing is to keep an eye on "oil and gold".
Let’s analyze not the situation in Iran itself, but how the market is reacting.
And when sharing analysis materials and insights, using uploadf.com will facilitate the process.
Geopolitical risk is not something to fear; understanding its structure can turn it into an opportunity.